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The foreign exchange market is constantly influenced by various factors, with economic indicators and central bank statements having a significant impact on market participants. Let’s reflect on recent trends and examine future prospects.
USD/JPY Movement and Market Factors
In the New York foreign exchange market, the USD/JPY rose to 144.85 yen due to stronger-than-expected December ADP national employment reports and lower-than-expected initial jobless claims in the previous week. The economic indicators in the United States, especially those related to employment, play a crucial role in influencing the USD/JPY. Additionally, the rise in US long-term interest rates contributes to the movement of the USD/JPY. However, with the impending release of the US December employment statistics, the market is adopting a cautious stance.
The future movement of the USD/JPY is expected to be significantly influenced by the results of the US December employment statistics. If figures such as the unemployment rate and non-farm payroll fall below expectations, market expectations for a rate cut may increase, potentially leading to a decline in the USD/JPY. Conversely, positive results could lead to an upward trend in the USD/JPY. It is crucial to closely monitor these developments.
EUR/USD Fluctuations and the Impact of Economic Data
The EUR/USD rose to 1.0972 dollars in the European market following better-than-expected Eurozone December services sector PMI revised figures. However, it later fell to around 1.0933 dollars due to the rise in US long-term interest rates prompted by robust American employment-related indicators. The EUR/USD’s movement is highly responsive to economic indicators in both Europe and the United States.
As a specific example, the Eurozone December services sector PMI exceeding expectations pushed the EUR/USD higher. However, strong US employment-related indicators became a contributing factor to the decline of the EUR/USD. The EUR/USD’s movement can be seen as delicately balancing between economic trends in Europe and the United States.
EUR/JPY Upsurge and Market Expectations
The EUR/JPY rose to 158.59 yen following the revision of Eurozone December services sector PMI figures and the receding speculation of early policy changes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The movement of the EUR/JPY is influenced not only by economic indicators in the Eurozone but also by expectations regarding Japan’s monetary policy.
A specific example includes the rise in the EUR/JPY attributed to positive Eurozone economic indicators, elevating market expectations. Simultaneously, the diminishing speculation about early policy changes by the BOJ acted as a supporting factor for the EUR/JPY. Considering this information, the movement of the EUR/JPY will continue to draw attention to economic indicators in both the Eurozone and Japan.
BOJ Governor’s Statements and the Impact of Earthquakes
BOJ Governor Ueda’s comments on the Noto Peninsula earthquake emphasized the need to cooperate with the banking sector to ensure the smooth functioning of financial mechanisms and fund settlement. The downturn in production activities due to the Noto Peninsula earthquake and the government’s recovery measures are believed to be affecting the BOJ’s monetary policy.
In the market, concerns about the economic impact of the Noto Peninsula earthquake have made it challenging for the BOJ to consider early removal of negative interest rates in the January 22-23 monetary policy meeting. The hurdle for normalizing monetary policy is perceived to be high even in the March-April meetings as views strengthen. Amid the visible impact of Japan’s earthquake on the economy, the BOJ is focusing on measures to ensure smooth fund settlement.
FOMC Policy and Dollar Outlook
In the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from December 12-13 last year, emphasis was placed on future policy decisions depending on data. The upcoming release of the US December employment statistics is considered a crucial element. If the employment statistics indicate a deterioration as expected, the probability of a rate cut beginning in the March FOMC meeting may increase, acting as a factor in restraining the upside of the USD.
On the contrary, if the employment statistics show robust results, the hawkish view expressed in the December FOMC minutes, advocating maintaining a restrictive policy stance, may support the USD. The hawkish interpretation from the FOMC includes cautious expressions regarding inflation rates and a reduction in the “upside risk” of inflation, alleviating concerns about monetary policy.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the foreign exchange market heavily relies on economic indicators and central bank dynamics. Vigilant observation is essential as future developments unfold. Depending on the results of the US December employment statistics, the movements of USD/JPY and EUR/USD may change, prompting investors to prepare for potential market shifts.
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