Conclusion: The US dollar showed a strong performance, witnessing an increase against major currencies.
Reason: One of the reasons for this was the February US Wholesale Price Index (PPI) surpassing expectations, particularly with a strong core index. This led to an increase in US long-term interest rates, boosting demand for the dollar.
Specific Examples:
- The February US PPI exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 1.6%.
- The core index also surpassed expectations with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.0%.
- The Dollar Index rose to 103.40 at one point.
Conclusion: Economic indicators’ positive surprises led to a broad uptrend in the US dollar.
2. Movement of USD/JPY
Conclusion: USD/JPY experienced temporary declines but regained momentum due to the increase in US long-term interest rates and speculation about policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan.
Reason: Speculation about early policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan, including the possible removal of the negative interest rate policy and normalization of massive monetary easing, caused a temporary decline. However, the increase in US long-term interest rates boosted demand for the dollar, resulting in a rebound in USD/JPY.
Specific Examples:
- USD/JPY rose to 148.36 temporarily due to the increase in US long-term interest rates.
- Speculation about the Bank of Japan’s policy adjustments led to a temporary decline to 147.44.
Conclusion: After a temporary decline, USD/JPY regained momentum and witnessed a strong performance.
3. Movement of EUR/JPY
Conclusion: EUR/JPY experienced a temporary decline but stabilized as buying interest emerged alongside the rise in USD/JPY.
Reason: Speculation about early policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan led to a temporary decline in EUR/JPY. However, buying interest emerged as USD/JPY rose, stabilizing EUR/JPY around the mid-161 levels.
Specific Examples:
- Speculation about early policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan led to a decline to 161.11 temporarily.
- Buying interest emerged alongside the rise in USD/JPY, stabilizing EUR/JPY around the mid-161 levels.
Conclusion: After a temporary decline, EUR/JPY stabilized as buying interest emerged alongside the rise in USD/JPY.
4. Movement of the US Stock Market
Conclusion: The US stock market experienced a decline following the positive surprise in February’s US PPI, with particular weakness seen in tech stocks.
Reason: The February US PPI exceeding expectations and a significant increase in US long-term interest rates led to concerns about relative overvaluation in stocks, prompting selling pressure. Tech stocks, in particular, witnessed notable declines.
Specific Examples:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a decline, with a temporary drop of over 330 points.
- The Nasdaq Composite Index, which has a high proportion of tech stocks, continued to decline, with notable drops seen in Nvidia, AMD, and Tesla.
Conclusion: The US stock market declined following the positive surprise in February’s US PPI, with tech stocks leading the losses.
5. Movement of Crude Oil and Gold
Conclusion: Crude oil futures continued to rise on expectations of tightening supply, while gold futures declined due to dollar-buying pressure resulting from the rise in US long-term interest rates.
Reason: The International Energy Agency’s report revised upward the global oil demand outlook for 2024, leading to expectations of tightened supply and driving crude oil futures higher. Conversely, the increase in US long-term interest rates resulted in reduced attractiveness for gold as an investment, leading to selling pressure.
Specific Examples:
- Crude oil futures rose as expectations of supply tightening led to increased buying pressure.
- Gold futures declined as US 10-year bond yields rose to around 4.29%.
Conclusion: Crude oil futures continued to rise on expectations of supply tightening, while gold futures declined due to dollar-buying pressure resulting from the rise in US long-term interest rates.
コメント